Monday, 22 December 2008

Carpe Diem

All I ever wanted, all I ever needed
Is here in my arms
Words are very unnecessary
They can only do harm
Enjoy the silence

I've been thinking about probabilities lately. However unrealistic they may seem, probabilities reflect some kind of powerful order that underlies the more apparent surface. Let's say for example we have a dice that somehow produces the result '2' 90% of the time. It seems logical to think that we would more or less always get 2 if there was a way to 'reset' things, like throwing the dice only once a day. Each time we throw the dice in a particular day, most of us would assume that the result would most likely be 2. And if we always think this way, then it would be reasonable to think that we'd always end up with the result 2 all the time, since this 90% thing is independent of the previous attempt.

But as probabilities go, in the long run, if the probability is true, the result will always reflect the probability as it were law. Given enough tries, the number of 2s returned from throwing the biased dice will reflect a 90% return rate. It is quite fascinating when we think of it likewise in everyday scenarios.

I recall a huge drain we'd jump across back then in navy camp because it was a useful shortcut. If the probability of falling into the drain is 3%, then given enough people attempting to jump across the drain, no matter how careful they are, 3 out of every 100 people will fall into the drain.

I think it really reflects another one of those bigger design-at-work things, for which we will always be mere pawns within.

I was just also thinking the other day. The purpose of art may not entirely be to exact change, but it is driven by an inherent desire to change, and create.

Anything worth taking seriously is worth making fun of.

Audio Candy:
The Shins - Pink Bullets

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