Monday 1 February 2010

My Issue With Statistics

My friend tells me that there is a 99% chance he will turn up for our meeting.

He doesn't come.

Was he lying?

2 comments:

Cairo said...

You will know when he turns up for another 99 meetings? lolx

Jose said...

haha perhaps, but one must remember the gambler's fallacy - each of those 99 other meetings are also subjected to a probability of 0.99 attendance, which means there is still the likelihood he might not turn up!